Mr. Justin Lessler, 26 March 2007
  Mathematical Investigation of Outbreaks: Finding the Source of Infection

ABSTRACT: Since William Farr's pioneering work in the mid-1800s, mathematics has played a key role in the investigation of disease outbreaks. The key task for the outbreak investigator is to identify the source of infection, so that interventions can be designed to prevent future outbreaks from the same cause. Classical techniques such as case-control studies and the analysis of epidemic curves have served investigators well for many years in outbreak responses.

 In recent years social interactions have become more numerous and complicated. At the same time tolerance for risk has decreased. Classical techniques alone are no longer adequate to understand outbreaks well enough to reduce the risk from infectious diseases to acceptable levels. No where is this more evident than in the hospital, where a constant influx of sick individuals and a high concentration of those at risk for serious complications presents a formidable challenge. I will present the mathematical techniques developed by my colleagues and myself to confront these new challenges in disease control, alongside the classical approaches from which have served investigators well for so many years.


BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH: Justin Lessler is a graduate student at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health where he is pursuing advanced degrees in Epidemiology and Biostatistics. Before leaving to pursue a career in infectious disease research Justin worked for seven years as a Software Engineer at IBM, where he contributed to both product development and research efforts. While working at IBM he also received his Masters in Computer Science from Stanford University. Justin is the recipient of numerous patents, and has published on topics ranging from automated document classification to influenza transmission.